Nigerian military launch offensive targeting JNIM, degrades its operational capability

North-West Nigeria: Security Situation Report (May 31 – June 6, 2026)

Introduction

This reporting period, marking the start of the year's second half, saw increased violent activity across northern Nigeria. In the North-West, bandit and insurgent groups intensified their operations, attacking communities and increasing abduction rates.

Notable incidents include the kidnapping of a retired Major General and his wife. In Matazu Local Government Area (LGA), bandits imposed a ₦10,000 tax on local residents, while attacks on farmers persisted in Birnin Magaji, where armed groups also enforced a curfew. A lethal attack in the Dan Gulbi area of Tureta LGA, Sokoto State, resulted in 26 fatalities. Additionally, the looting and abduction of commuters on regional highways continued unabated.

The North-East experienced a combination of operational setbacks and successes. In Biu LGA, ISWAP attacked a troop position in Mandara Girau, killing ten soldiers. Conversely, a precision airstrike on the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) position resulted in the elimination of 50 insurgents, including Khalifa Umar, a high-ranking ISWAP judge and Shura Council member. This follows a recent joint US-Nigerian operation that neutralized other top commanders.

In the North-Central region, Nigerian and Beninese security forces launched a joint offensive in the Babanna area of Niger State in the Borgu region. The operation neutralized over 200 JNIM fighters and led to the recovery of arms, ammunition, and approximately 300 motorcycles. JNIM has maintained a presence in Nigeria since at least 2024; this engagement confirms the affiliate's activities in the country, further complicating the national security landscape.

Weekly Review:

Instability in the North-West escalated this week as kidnapping for ransom and attacks increased. No less than 33 incidents were recorded, a 50% increase from the previous week. Abduction rates rose by 46%, with 111 victims kidnapped compared to 76 last week. However, the fatality rate declined by 40%, dropping from 54 to 32, suggesting that armed groups are prioritizing financial gain through abductions over lethal violence.

Zamfara and Sokoto states remain the primary hubs for armed activity, accounting for 73 and 20 abductions, respectively. These states also recorded 15 and 5 fatalities and experienced 16 and 5 separate attacks. This data indicates a geographic shift in violence toward these two neighboring states, contrasting with the previous week's concentration in Katsina.

JNIM Suffers Heavy Defeat in Joint Nigeria-Benin Offensive

The Al-Qaeda affiliate, JNIM, suffered significant setbacks during a five-day joint operation involving Nigerian and Beninese security forces alongside local vigilantes in the Babanna area of Borgu, Niger State. The joint security force neutralized over 200 fighters and seized substantial arms and motorcycles. This represents the largest single defeat for the group since it established a presence along the Nigeria-Benin border and in the Borgu and Kwara corridors.

Open-source intelligence indicates that the fighters traveled from Kwara State and Malanville in Benin Republic (via Kamba, Kebbi State) to meet with a senior JNIM leader who recently arrived from Mali in the Borgu forest in Niger State. Security forces ambushed the group during their departure, inflicting heavy casualties. Reports suggest the regional leader, Amir Akibu Armiya’u, survived the operation.

This engagement confirms JNIM's southward expansion, following a recent attack in Benin Republic near the Burkina Faso border during which 47 soldiers were killed. In Nigeria, the group has reportedly formed alliances with local bandits and the Sadiku-led JAS Boko Haram faction. They have entrenched themselves in the Borgu region and Kainji Lake National Park, which links Niger, Kwara, and Kebbi states. JNIM's presence in Kwara State poses a direct threat to the South-West, as the state serves as a regional gateway. 

While the recent operation is likely to weaken the group's near-term capacity, it underscores the growing complexity of armed actors in the Kwara-Niger corridor. The Nigerian military must sustain counter-terrorism operations in the Borgu and Kainji Lake regions to deny these groups operational space and prevent long-term territorial ambitions in the North-Central zone.

Outlook

In the coming weeks, northern theaters will likely face continued attacks on communities, military outposts, and local populations. During the rainy season, armed groups will likely exploit the difficult terrain that hinders troop movements and leverage poor weather conditions to secure tactical advantages, as recently observed in the North-East.

On the other hand, While joint operations with the US focus on the North-East, the increasing capability of groups in the North-Central region necessitates the deployment of intelligence assets to the Kainji and Borgu areas. The Nigerian Air Force base in Kainji remains a critical asset for sustained engagement to deny operational freedom to these groups.